Tech predictions- what we’ll see in 2009
Oh boy, it’s that time of year when we put ourselves out on the front line and boldly make our predictions for what we’ll see in the world of mobile tech in 2009. I say “we” but that’s only to put Kevin’s butt on the line too. 
He and I actually disagree on some of the things we expect hope to see next year. Here are the big mobile tech predictions broken down by tech genre:
Notebooks
By far the biggest story in notebooks will continue to be the lowly netbook. We will see models refreshed and new models continue to be released by those new to the scene. Prices will remain about where they are at the end of 2008 as they don’t have very far to fall while keeping the basic features intact. These basic features will not change much due to the thin price range. We’ll continue to see Atoms everywhere, 1 GB of RAM, SSDs and HDDs like we see now. Touchscreens will start to be offered but it won’t take long for consumers to figure out they offer little except higher cost.
Windows 7 will appear in the second half of 2009 and Microsoft will make a big push to get XP off of netbooks. They will have to make huge concessions for a new OS as far as pricing to do so however. Netbooks that cost $300 – 400 will not support an OS with a licensing fee of over $25. The term “netbook” will continue to flourish despite Psion’s best efforts.
Major OEMs will continue to push thin and light notebooks on both the enterprise and increasingly on consumers. The race will stay on to add the most features while keeping the price around $1,000 for these consumer laptops. Integrated 3G will continue to be a feature on notebooks but consumers will remain reluctant to pony up $60 per month for the data plans. Unfortunately we will not see any new developments in battery tech so things will be stagnant in this area.
Apple will finally refresh the 17-inch MacBook Pro by introducing a powerful unibody Pro with the big screen and a quad-core processor. This will be aimed at the professional graphics worker and will cost in the rich neighborhood of $3,000. There will not be an Apple netbook as such a low priced device is not in Apple’s scheme of things. They will introduce an “iPod Maxi” that is an iPod Touch with a 5 – 7-inch screen. They will claim this is their netbook, although lacking a keyboard.
Smartphones
The line between smartphones and feature phones will continue to blur in 2009 with consumers not caring what their phone is called. We will continue to see feature-rich phones with big touchscreens and web browsing pushed by the carriers. This will have a desirable affect for smartphone users as the carriers will have to reduce their monthly rate for data plans. Consumers just “buying a phone” will not pay the high fees for data plans that are being charged now. We will see 3G stop being a selling point and become an expected commodity in 2009. The proliferation of web phones will begin saturating the carrier’s networks and may affect enterprise service.
Microsoft will likely introduce the next interim version of Windows Mobile to compete more directly with the iPhone. This will not be the next major version of WM which likely won’t appear until 2010. This interim version of Windows Mobile must incorporate touch throughout the core of the OS if new WM devices are to remain competitive. HTC will continue to be the biggest WM handset producer in 2009.
Apple may introduce a refresh of the iPhone 3G but it will be minor if so. We might see an updated processor and video capabilities but that’s about it.
Android will really begin picking up steam in 2009 and we expect to see as many as 12 handsets appear from different OEMs bearing the Android OS. The OS will continue to improve and get really robust as the commercial app store is open early in the year. Android will become a force to be reckoned with in 2009 and begin stealing market share from Windows Mobile. We’ll see version 2 of Android in 2009 that will rapidly bring it into the competitive world. Expect Exchange support in Android 2.
Nokia and other OEMs will continue to lose market share to Apple and RIM. Blackberries will continue to invade the consumer space making RIM even bigger than before. They will produce several new handsets that will firmly straddle the enterprise/ consumer space, thus cementing their future in the smartphone domain.
4G
WiMAX will continue to roll out but not many will care. The major players will continue to be burned by the “chicken and egg” situation that has consumers waiting to enroll until the coverage is as big as 3G. LTE will make strides in 2009 on its way to be the NBT in 4G and this will be a nail in the WiMAX coffin.
Tablet PCs
We add this category reluctantly because it is clear that it is dead as a product line. The current players producing devices will continue to refresh them but little innovation will appear in this space in 2009. Touch will continue to be the rage in this area, continuing to push the ink well off the screen. This is expected with the technology incorporated into Vista and touch being a mantra with Windows 7. Ink will become an even smaller niche market in 2009 than it was in 2008.
I predict that my Zune will work again in 2009.
Oww… that hurts about the Tablet PC…
An Ipod maxi? Unfortunate name- you just know it will called the Imaxipod
What you’ll see in 2009 is the second generation of netbooks emerge, a slew of high-end 17″ notebooks come out with the mobile Core i7, a bigger penetration of SSD drives in notebooks, a rush for set-top boxes in February, and a mad dash by enthusiasts to grab copies of XP when Win7 is released.
That’s just the condensed version, but I’m sure you guys here are on top of it.
Is Android supported by LifeInPocket(LifeInPocket.com) one of the most popular mobile app. If it does, then it will be more attractive than iPhone.
Always fun to guess ahead..what about the Apple/ATT iPhone agreement? Will the iPhone become available from other U.S. carriers? My prediction is yes. Apple wants more penetration and that means deals with Sprint plus some regional operators like Union. I don’t see one with Verizon though.
ASUS and Samsung will throw in the towel on UMPCs. MIDs will disappear from the market.
u must b kidding about tablets and touch. the 2nd gen of netbooks in 09 will present a swivel-touch combination (like the m912 or p1630).
What about iPhone with other carriers in U.S,? Its obvious that Apple wants more market share than an exclusive with ATT can provide. My guess is we’ll see it on Sprint and some regionals but not on Verizon. Another pssibility is that the iPhone Nano will be the device that Apple makes available on anyone but ATT.
I’d agree with Tal that tablets will sneak their way into the mainstream via cheap touch netbooks.
I also predict Linux will continue its silent move to being used by most users without anyone even noticing via InstantOn style instant OS ROMs.
It’s a Kansas City Shuffle, and the big boys have been caught looking the wrong way; continuing to try to sell bigger, faster stronger to a market that has finally realised that you don’t need a 4Ghz processor and 8Gb of RAM for web browsing, sending email and the occassional bit of word processing.
The game’s changed: It’s quality vs. quantity. In 2009 the maxim will be “Do less, well.”
While battery life itself may not be extended in 2009, the same effect may be present if the OLPC display developer (Pixel Qi) hits the market in the 2nd half of 2009 with very low energy use displays.
Bring on those 20 to 40 hour battery life laptops and netbooks with this new efficient display technology in 2009 !
As someone who has been using pen interface since I got my first PDA during the 90’s and currently using UMPCs and Tablet PCs, I hope you are wrong on your predictions for this segment. I think tablet PCs still represent a new and somewhat unknown niche that is starting being discovered by many users. Some days ago, for example, the NYT presented an article about the use of tablets (and IT) on Health Care (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/27/business/27record.html?_r=2&scp=1&sq=tablet&st=cse). As the clinic’s chief executive described, “It’s been a fabulous journey from physicians being reluctant to now being unable to live without this technology”…
Happy New Year!!!
Tablets will continue to serve vertical markets, that’s what I mean by staying a niche market like in 2008.
What I believe is that touch and Tablets are not compatible as far as inking goes. Passive digitizers, the cheap ones currently used, do not allow good inking. Capacitive digitizers do not allow inking at all. A dual digitizer must be employed to provide good touch and good inking. That keeps the price way up and does not help break out of the niche mode. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see it.
The growth of laptops over desktops and the continued convergence of audio/video and computer technologies will lead to 1) dual-HDD laptops with onboard mobo RAID, 2) built-in A/V input terminals, and 3) high bandwidth digital outputs.
For business notebooks I expect to see more 10″-12″ ultraportables with increased power. As a niche prosumer product look for rack-mounted RAID workstations for tapeless video capture and editing.
“We add this category RELUCTANTLY because it is clear that it is DEAD as a product line.”
Ouch! that was way too much painful and probably that was the reason why you just had to talk about it in a way you just did. Few words about it as if saying goodbye before it leaves us.
Before it leaves us…
Trend: Build your own laptop.
“Intel’s vision for the channel mobile is centered on building a mobile ecosystem based on common ingredients such as mobile motherboards. These two new Intel-branded mobile motherboards take us closer to helping system integrators and ultimately end-users build their own notebooks.”
http://www.intel.cc/pressroom/kits/centrino2/RC2_MB_FactSheet.pdf
http://www.intel.com/products/notebook/boards/index.htm?iid=mbd_body+mb_all
Trend: Netbook VPNs
Netbook users wary of keeping their personal data in the cloud will use Virtual Private Network protocols to access files from their home computers.
James,
I agree, tablets will continue to serve vertical markets. I also think ink is very useful in tablets/laptops, while touch is useful in either small (e.g. iphone) or very large screens.
In related news, did you see the Wired blog (http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2008/12/rumor-large-for.html)about the rumors of a touchscreen Mac tablet coming fall 2009?