Is the Netbook Fad Over? I Don’t Think So
Netbooks have taken the PC world by storm, as indicated by big sales numbers. The genre grew from a single ground-breaking (not wallet-busting) model, the EEE PC, to the dozens of models shipping today. There have been discussions claiming that netbooks are stealing notebook sales, and others addressing the opposite point of view. Recent sales numbers show a slowing of netbook shipments and Dwight Silverman of Techblog recently pointed out that this slowdown could portend the end of the netbook fad.
Dwight is a personal friend and he really knows his stuff, so when he says something I am prone to listen. The possible fall of the mighty little netbook is not something I think we’[re beginning to see but, Dwight makes some good points toward that possibility.
He gives himself some wiggle room by pointing out that the poor economy may be to blame for the falling netbook sales. I believe that has everything to do with them and it’s only prudent of Dwight to give himself an out if netbooks resurge.
Is the honeymoon that netbooks have enjoyed with new users over? The article puts forth that possibility, and rightly so; some folks I’ve spoken with were originally enamored with the little notebooks but quickly got tired of the compromises they bring to the table. I don’t find them overly compromised but as we often see that is in the eyes of the beholder, and what one sees as a “feature” another will call a “deal breaker.”
Dwight goes on to point out that “regular” notebooks are coming down in price and consumers often can pick up a “full” notebook for just a bit more than a netbook. This is certainly true but has been for a while, so I’m not so sure this would cause fascination with netbooks to diminish. Me, I think it’s the economy that has sales slowing down. Sales are slumping in just about every high-dollar industry and this is no exception. It’s good food for thought, though.
The ECONOMY is down, so netbook sales are up!
The ECONOMY is down, so netbook sales are down!
That’s what I was thinking…
Maybe there’s a market saturation reached? The number of people who can afford to spend money on a new laptop/netbook is certainly not unlimited. And the number of people who want a “companion machine” for their main laptop is even smaller.
What, other than smaller size, does a netbook offer me over a two-year-old laptop? After all, a two year old laptop is just as net-savvy (if not more) than a netbook (given that the usually larger/higher-res screen makes surfing a better experience).
Hi James,
I don’t think the “fad” is over. People who appreciate the combination of price, size and weight will continue to buy netbooks.
When I’m wandering around a huge exhibit hall or if I were a student going to classes and walking around campus, the size and weight advantages of a netbook become quite obvious. So it’s more than just the price that’s important.
In “developed” countries, netbooks probably will remain second or third machines. But in emerging nations, where price is the primary consideration, cheap netbooks will continue to have a significant market.
As cellular operators in the U.S. and abroad begin selling discounted netbooks, there will be more publicity about them. (I did, however, warn about the potential problems of purchasing a netbook from an operator (http://tinyurl.com/pxjrct).
I think the netbook niche is giving people what they want. For a time, the trend was towards ever larger laptops, and the few small notebooks were outrageously prices. I’ve been wanting a smaller notebook that had enough horsepower for light gaming, and am now the happy owner of an Asus N10.
I don’t think the fad is over at all, if you ask me, it has yet to reach its peak.
Fast forward 12-18 months. Economy aside, we’ll see Windows 7 on machines everywhere and Intel pushing out Medfield. Win 7 gives netbook users something XP couldn’t and Vista wouldn’t, while Medfield at 32nm should give netbook performance comparable to today’s Core 2 Duo notebooks.
Next years netbooks will give today’s $500-$600 notebooks a serious run for their money, both in performance and user-friendliness. At the “over $800″ price point notebooks still reign supreme, but below $800 I’d think netbooks and notebooks provide “friendly competition”, and that, for consumers, can only be a good thing.
I don’t think netbooks are a fad at all.
If anything, I wouldn’t be surprised if netbooks, ultimately, end up supplanting notebooks on the top of the food chain. For most people, they just make sense.
I bought my netbook for its form factor fully realizing its compromises. I have other notebooks which are faster and have better graphics but they are larger and heavier and quite frankly a pain to carry around. I think the netbook is here to stay.
This is no fad… and we have not reached saturation yet.
“Net-books” are here to stay and will continue to dominate sales. With the economy the way it is, more people are just looking to make do with what they have a bit longer, perhaps upgrading their RAM, or even looking at Presto to give them that ‘Just-like-a-new-speedy-pc-feel”
What I think companies like Apple are failing to realize is that the churn rate of these small PCs is going to be higher. Instead of buying a full pc and keeping it for 3 or more years, I am willing to bet that netbooks owners will on the whole replace their machines every 18 months to two years.
What better way to build a new platform of loyal users, and make more money out them in the long term?
I currently use a Lenovo S10. I plan on buying another laptop in the fall after W7 is released. It will NOT be a netbook unless I can buy a netbook with at least a dual core-Atom or higher and at least a 12″ screen (maybe a 14″ screen).
Please don’t sully the netbook name with a 12″ or 14″ screen. Go buy a $399 6-lb laptop at Best Buy and call it a day.
Check this bad boy: http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2009/05/15/acer_aspire_571/
I bought a Netbook last year and thought I buy a new and better one this year but truth to be told there are no new netbooks out there yet that really have an edge over my MSI Wind clone. They are all the same. Maybe the new touch screen netbooks bring fresh wind into the market?
I think Android is going to usher in a new generation of netbooks/tablets that include smartphone hardware (touchscreen, 3G, GPS, accelerometer, compass, etc.) and support cell phone calls and SMS. These devices are likely to become popular with mobile operators, because the operators would be able to generate revenue from:
1. data contracts.
2. phone calls & SMS.
3. app purchases (e.g. operators get a cut from Android Market app sales).
4. value-added apps & services that leverage the capabilities of these “smartphone” devices.
Netbooks/tablets running a desktop OS don’t offer all of these same revenue opportunities for the operators.
James,
Thanks for the link and sharing your thoughts. I want to call your attention to the last paragraph, in which I make the point that I am NOT calling it a fad, and that I don’t think netbooks will go away.
Any of the theories I put forth — or all of them — could be the cause for the drop. But I do think the hot buzz for them, which was largely caused by geek early adopters, is done.
Dwight.
Whats on screen in the picture? look sinteresting, whatever it is xD
HP Mini Mi:
http://jkontherun.com/2009/02/11/video-review-hp-mini-1000-mi-netbook/
I have the Acer AspireOne with Linpus Lite. I like the portability and I’ve discovered that I really don’t need all of the bloated and expensive software that require Windows. The small footprint of the netbook is the selling point for me. Everything I need for work fits into my REI Boarding Bag.
Someone mentioned it was like buying a year or 2 year old computer.
IS there a comparison chart with the current Netbook processors, to a Pentium 2/3 speed?
I think that the netbooks are here to stay, especially for people who absolutely need the portability at an affordable price. An HP Mini 2140 HD owner, I can attest to the fact that my 10.1″ laptop works wonderfully when processing several business-related applications (with Flash) all at once. I’m actually glad that we have a choice with these machines. It’s very convenient to be able to take my HP Mini anywhere while enduring the rigors of travel and feisty toddlers!