What’s in Store for the Future of Netbooks?
It’s hard to believe it, but it’s almost two years to the day that I took delivery of my first netbook. Actually it wasn’t called a netbook back then — it was more of a spinoff idea from the OLPC project. It doesn’t matter what you called it; my Asus Eee PC 701 was a fun little machine. The device was useful, too. Every post I wrote from the 2008 Consumer Electronics Show was banged out on that little unit, although I had replaced the stock Linux build with XP by that point. Oh, the memories…
My Eee PC 701 was sold to a jkOnTheRun reader, but it spawned my then-future interest in netbooks. Two years later, I still use one (or two), but the device has matured as consumers play a tug-of-war with manufacturers. We want more memory, but support constraints sometimes overrule our desires. Some of us want higher resolutions, but we generally — but not always — have to move up to a different device class. All in all, the netbook market was born and quickly matured in a phenomenally short amount of time, all things considered. Some would call my original Eee PC totally unusable, and for them, that might be accurate. But there are a plethora of usable netbooks out there now that are appealing to a wide audience. The recent sales numbers don’t lie — netbooks showed one of the few growth signs in the PC market over the past year or so.
I have little doubt that this trend will continue for at least another year or two, but what happens after that? Peggy Albright tries to answer that question as well as others in a 27-page report on netbooks over at GigaOm Pro (subscription required). The netbook future that Peggy envisions includes:
- A new ecosystem — I see glimpses of this with the Moblin project, and more specifically, the Moblin Garage. Early netbooks were constrainted just like UMPCs when dialog boxes and such simply didn’t fit. And considering my Eee PC 701 had an 800 x 480 display, that was most of them!
- Fragmentation — Netbooks have been pretty uniform and cookie-cutter to date, so I did a double-take when I read this. But there are some signs of life in the slow moving smartbook market, which could indeed fragment the netbook space.
- The definition of a netbook will change — This goes along with the fragmentation point. Today we consider netbooks to be x86 devices with a desktop operating system. Next year, that could change as ARM takes the stage and non-traditional operating systems like Google’s Chrome OS and the aforementioned Moblin gain traction.
I can’t predict the future any better than Peggy can, but she has some solid analysis in this report. I think folks are still stuck on the idea of netbooks as “little laptops,” which of course, they are. But thinking about them solely as such limits the possibilities and use cases, in my opinion. And the hardware improvement making these devices far more usable haven’t come at too steep a price. My Eee PC was $399 in 2007. A far better MSI Wind was $599 a year later, but now is around half of that price. And my new Toshiba NB205 costs $399, but offers roughly three times the battery life of that first netbook.
What do you expect to see in the future netbook market?
Netbooks will morph into and be called smartbooks — The term “netbooks” will become extinct
I see the TC1000/1100 form factor reintroduced as the new defacto standard, with multitouch capacitive, but penabled, screens for current netbook prices.
Grateful if you and James could use your influence to sort that Kevin. Thanks.
I still remember the huge excitement and buzz surrounding the 701. I just think we now need to see a bit of innovation in the space whereby we lose some of the current compromises, maybe some clever fold out keyboards and some more Ion goodness.
That being said I reckon netbooks will become bigger screened ultrathins.
i agree with you on that one totally as an ex tc1×00 user. it is still to this day the best form factor i’ve used for a tablet. the fact that you could snap off the keyboard and go was beautiful!
now thinking of that w/multitouch capabilities and the geek inside shivers in glee! i’m always a bit sad to see no one else try that form factor and that hp never followed up such a great design w/a revision. the tc1000/1100 cult could really help any company hammer out the best tablet pc design yet.
i agree w/fragmentation and also netbooks pricing themselves right out of the category of netbook (w/added premium features). however, the lowend netbook will always exist because it will just sell.
please hp, bring back the TC!!
acer had a c200 that was similar, tho the keyboard was not removable.
what i think happened was that the ODM’s found it easiest to sell the rotating hinge type screen to anyone and everyone, as overall the parts where highly similar to existing laptops.
mass production, while may be driving down price, have killed quite a lot of creativity in the market.
Like you, I’m a big believer in netbooks even for business usage. I’ve recently started using an HP Mini 110 running Windows 7 Starter Edition as my main mobile machine. Even though it wasn’t a processor upgrade from me previous netbook, an EEE PC 901, I aimed too small with screen and keyboard with my first try. I like the 10″ screen and bigger keyboard much better. Windows 7 is a solid performer too (even starter edition). I’m not going to upgrade to Home Premium until I encounter something I can’t do that I need (other than change the background. GRRR!)
Windows OSes always start out running nice and briskly. Then….as you fill up that nasty NT Registry….it will slowy crawl like a dog that don’t hunt no more. This WILL happen with Windoze 7 just like ALL the previous windows. Listen to me now and you can believe me later.
Look for Apple to redefine the netbook space in short order (like 2010 and beyond). If you wanna be a playa in 2010 you will most surely have to FOLLOW in the mighty footstep of the Apple Gods (or is it God). Anyway I am still waiting for that Super-sized iPod…holding breath…crossing fingers….on my knees…you can do this Apple.
Wow. Just wow.
Dare you question the might and wisdom of Apple with your remark? Such heresy must not be allowed!
I am still using a 8.9″ 900HA netbook and I don’t see myself changing it for anything else.
I see big potential in the smartbook sector, thanks in part to how much the smartphone market has developed with better and better handhelds. Fusing together the best that a netbook/smartphone duo can deliver into the form factor of a Jornada clamshell has to be the next big thing. Add to that a full-size multi-touch display and you have the most powerful pocketable device ever conceived.
People can bite me over what “smartbooks” are “going to become”. I LOL at that thought. Perhaps those folks have stakes in the future of those. The reality if you care, is that the 7 and 8 inch netbooks have not seen growth. Why? Simple. It’s called a keyboard. A netbook will and always should be simply a computer that is small enough to fit a full size keyboard. That would be right around the 11 inch mark. Most people who use the internet like to do what? Type on a keyboard. Yes, it’s true. You can’t squeeze a good keyboard onto <10" computers. So, stick another fork in smartbook. The definition of netbook is a frustrating one, because you have the industry wanting to call their computers "laptops" "notebooks" or now "ultra thins" so they can get a bit better return on their sales. However, the public doesn't care about that. Netbook is organic and you just can't slap a label on something an expect it to stick.
The future of netbooks? These will be like the iPod nano's of the future. I'm sure we thought that 6" laptop that weighed 9 pounds was pretty good. What happens? Better, small, faster. ION netbooks will pretty much blow the doors off any limitations that folks might have had on netbooks. If you can do your gaming and internet on a computer, why wouldn't you want that computer to be the smallest package possible? Fact is, you would. That's why I come full circle to a netbook being a computer that is sized just big enough to fit a full size keyboard. End of story. Remember folks, ION will be the future of netbooks.
Besides Win7, dual-core Atom, Nvidia ION, and larger screens, it’ll be pretty much the same. Due to Microsoft restrictions, the specs will still be consistent.
We’re still seeing Atom N270 chips in netbooks and it’s been a good year or 2 since they were released. It’s at a nice price point so there won’t be much fudging with what is successful.
I don’t see much gain in the smartbook area. It’ll be a niche device.. but it’ll be interesting to see how many different device form factors companies will come up with just to put Android on there.
I’m still curious what kind of devices Intel Moorestown will end up in.
funny about that moblin, as its basically taking what asus and xandros did with the eeepc distro to the logical extreme, rather then slap bog standard xp on it.
i think that made the first eeepc unique, not that asus played around with linux, but that they dared move away from the classical desktop (if not as radical as moblin is doing).
now its just about only dell, and only in select markets (USA and other english speaking ones mostly).
I do think that the “smart book” category is going to be big. Price (and not size) will be a huge driver outside the US, Japan, Australia, and the EU. Dropping down from from the $300-$400 range to the sub $200 range will make a big difference in accessibility for 60%+ of the world’s population. I also see this as a way that Linux (Moblin, Ubuntu, whatever) will spread even further than it has so far. This is not to say that these devices won’t sell in the more developed markets — I believe that they will. It’s just that they won’t need to be a huge success here in the US to be a huge success overall.
What people aren’t thinking about is smartphones. If you have a smartphone why would you need a so called smartbook? Smartphone will be able to do pretty much everything you would need, wait for this…..except for being able to type on it. Enter netbook. Smartphone – Netbook – Laptop. Why on earth would anyone need something in between that? Sheesh. If price is going to be some selling point, let’s see how much a Tegra netbook or Android or Chrome OS netbook is going to cost. Then what happens? They will likely be half the price of today netbooks. Nuff said.
i suspect smartbooks will replace netbooks, rather then try to get somewhere between the smartphone and the netbook.
still, celio should really get going on android support for redfly and similar, as i think interest in their products would explode then, especially if paired up with android running on top of cortex or snapdragon.
Netbooks will soon receive transreflective LCD screen allowing use without a backlight in many situations (outdoors, brightly lit indoors) this will increase battery life.
A touch screen (with a power off switch) will be added – along with an accelerometer which will enable automatic screen switching(vertical/horizontal) – making a netbook a very good ebook reader.
Ubiquitous wifi will enable voip, this may require a bit of programming to add a powersaving mode when using voip 24/7 – a wake on call function of some sort.
Netbooks are too handy and too good to go away, USB flash drives are available in higher density than dvd discs and require less energy than spinning a disc – netbooks really don’t need a cd/dvd drive – this will enable them to become thinner and sexier than the big old clunky notebooks.
Eventually the market splits – very full featured netbooks in 2 tiers
tier1
sub 250 usd$ – very light email voip e-reader mp3 player – market sector = teens/tweens/travelers & people who hate cell phones
tier2
250-500 usd$ -longer battery life, bigger screen,bigger keyboard, faster cpu
this will eat most of the current personal notebook sector – market sector = travelers/most personal computers/people who keep their stuff for several years/ – these will kill the desktop computers.
Laptops will split
tier1
500 – 1000 – bigger screens, more powerhungry, more powerful cpus & gpus
mostly corporate buyers and portable game junkies = market sectors
tier2
1000-2000 – uber netbooks, blue-ray, wireless & wired switch/hub functions/ 2 or more cameras and microphones, larger speakers, 5.1 – detachable speakers – all the toys your money can buy. = mostly wannabe tech junkies, video editors, movie production types, music production, cad/cam or other very high end/ high margin businesses that can justify the expense vs rendering time.
my best guess, greener less power hungry computers will be the reason most people upgrade their computers – the new netbooks will own this business.