The most glaring deficit is in the available applications. It’s not a question of needing 100,000 to choose from — it’s simply a matter of not having major titles available in the Application Catalog. I realize that Palm hasn’t yet opened up the catalog to everyone, so I don’t entirely blame developers. And I knew in advance that development would be slow for this reason. But I’m getting antsy and tired of waiting. Look at this way — can you name five webOS software titles from major third-party developers? I’m struggling to do so. Even lesser known “brand names” or “web brands” aren’t in the catalog yet. It seems that as each day passes, I hear about a great new app for iPhone or Android, but not for Palm. Recently we mentioned a few of these: Slacker, Photoshop, Remember the Milk to name a few just in the past week or two.

In many cases, I can use the Pre’s web browser to get things done without using a mobile application. Much of my online time is with WordPress, since that’s where this site is hosted. I’m not creating posts on my phones, but I’m reading — and responding to — comments, checking stats, scheduling posts and more. That’s doable in a small browser, but the WordPress iPhone client has me constantly carrying my iPhone in addition to my Pre. And that’s just one of many examples. The few Twitter clients for webOS are usable, but the ones for iPhone and Android are far better in terms of the user experience. Facebook is the same way — in fact, that’s a prime example. Until recently, the limited Facebook web client for mobiles was abysmal to use — I couldn’t even respond to a wall post or comment. It’s much better now, but Facebook on iPhone is where it’s at.

And about that webOS browser — it’s good, but it still needs work. Some of the basic functionality that didn’t work on day one still isn’t there. I still can’t tell where I am on a page because there’s no indicator. And when I try to read a reader comment here on the site, tapping the link to it doesn’t take me to the comment — it simply takes me to the post page where the comment is. I have to manually go and find it myself. Is it any wonder I just use the WordPress client for iPhone?

In any case, I’m committed to give my Pre a fair chance, given the known schedule and constraints. And I do love the hardware as well as the webOS UI. I’ll probably give things until February to sort themselves out. If I don’t see enough progress, I’ll very likely look at what Android 2.0 devices are available at that time. I doubt it will be a Droid though, as I expect even better devices in the first quarter of 2010. Android is far from perfect, but its maturity is happening far faster. And it’s a vicious cycle that puts Palm at a disadvantage — as Android gains market share and features, developers are far more likely to invest their resources in a bigger platform.

Think I’m being to hard on my Palm Pre? Let me know in the comments — just keep in mind that I’m speaking about my own needs. If a webOS device is meeting all of your needs, then you should be happy with your device. I’m not trying to convince you otherwise, nor is this a “jumping on / off the bandwagon” approach. Every one of us should be evaluating the mobile tools we use. If they don’t work, then seeking alternatives is what we should be doing.

The fact of the matter is that the data plan is a separate item from the netbook, no matter the subsidy. Sure the carrier will knock off a few hundred dollars so you’ll buy the netbook, but the real product they are selling is the data plan. Subsidy or no, netbook or notebook, if you don’t need a two-year data plan then don’t buy it. If the data plan is important to your work or other need, then get it and view the netbook as a throw-in on that deal.

What most fuzzy mathematicians fail to note is that carriers will let you move the data plan to any other device, even if you bought a netbook from them. You can move the plan to a “full” notebook down the road if you decide the netbook is too restrictive. You can move the plan to one of those fancy MiFi devices, or even a USB modem. It’s your data plan for two years and you can do what you want with it (except cancel it without penalty).

So don’t buy a data plan to get a cheap subsidized netbook — they are all cheap already. Buy a data plan because that’s what you need, and if you get the cheap netbook so be it. It’s still a cheap netbook — not a four figure netbook no matter what anyone says.

See, that’s one of the common responses I get when I talk about Microsoft becoming a potential “also-ran” to Apple, Google and Research in Motion. Folks defend the platform passionately with quotes like “I can install any third party app on my Windows Mobile device and there are tens of thousands of them out there.” Or “Windows Mobile currently has every single other platform beat hands-down in terms of app library due to its long history.” Good points. Apple says there are now 85,000 applications in their store, but I really have no idea how that compares to the Windows Mobile space. Nor do any other consumers.

I know that I’ve used a fair share of third-party applications during my WinMo days. Some of them were outstanding and I’d load ‘em up on every WinMo handset I had. And I suspect that many of you have felt the same joy about certain programs in the past. So why then, isn’t Microsoft defending Windows Mobile in this regard? I’m sure it’s difficult to determine the exact number of applications available for Windows Mobile since there isn’t yet a centralized place to find them, but even an estimate would be handy, no?

The hardware does indeed blanket your home with better coverage on your handset. But that’s just for the network traffic between your handset and the femtocell — it doesn’t magically alter the wireless cellular signal from the femtocell to the nearest cell tower. So how then, does the femtocell enhance your phone coverage? It does it over broadband, which you have to provide and pay for. The femtocell routes traffic through your home Internet connection to give you better voice, and potentially, data coverage at home. I’m not questioning the value or need of such a device, especially since we cut our landline cord a few months ago. Ultimately, we need solid cellphone coverage in our house. The problem is that the business model is skewed far more towards the carrier. How so?

Essentially, you need a femtocell in the home because the carrier that provides you service simply can’t cover that service in your house. Instead of the expense to add another cellular tower nearby, they’re offering you a mini-tower, which takes network traffic off of their network. Put another way – you’re paying the carrier extra money each month because they can’t provide you service that you’re already paying for. They benefit from the decreased traffic on the rest of their network. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — instead of charging consumers $5, $10 or $20 a month for femtocell use, they should instead be crediting customers that amount to help with their coverage and network issues.

Update: I see Gizmodo agrees with my rant, although they use slightly more colorful language.

Lee mentions that the “typical Windows Vista netbook runs from $300 to $500.” That’s an accurate statement, but I’d argue its relevance. Why? Go out and look at netbooks for sale in a retail store or online. Now out of the lot of them, how many run Windows Vista as opposed to those that run Windows XP? I’ve been watching this market since it became a market and I’d say netbooks with XP outnumber those with Vista by at least 8 to 1. So why utilize Windows Vista to draw sweeping generalizations about the Intel Atom and netbooks as a whole? It simply doesn’t make sense.

The culprit, Lee says, is bad marketing research. People want lightweight portable computers with long battery life, so that’s why netbooks are made and sold. My question to Lee would be: if that’s what people want and computer makers are willing to build them, what’s the issue? Actually, is there an issue at all? Last I checked, netbook sales were up and growing in a what’s otherwise a down market for PC makers. Surely, there are a few happy customers in the tens of millions buying netbooks, no?

I understand that Lee is pointing out how limiting an Intel Atom netbook can be when compared to full-featured desktops. That’s not in dispute. But the fact is — proven by those big sales numbers for a market that’s not yet two years old – there’s a place for low-powered computing devices in the world. No, they may not handle Windows Vista well, although they’re pretty capable with Windows 7. And Lee’s right that “games like Flight Simulator are a joke,” but the fact that he even installed such a game on a netbook tells me that his expectations of the device were flawed from the start. It’s simple once you understand what both the Atom and netbooks are for: basic computing for several hours in various locations. Once you have that expectation in mind, I think you’ll find that both the chip and the device are well suited to the task. If instead, you need heavy duty multitasking, high-definition video and 3-D gaming, you’ll have to step up to a more expensive and power hungry chip in a what’s likely a larger device.

How about it, netbook owners? Netbooks and the Intel Atom certainly don’t do everything well, but are they doing enough of what you need on the go?

Lenovo has done a masterful job with the multitouch on the T400s. It is light touch, as good as that on any smartphone, and can sense up to four points simultaneously. It can detect two-handed operations; even two people can manipulate things on-screen at once with accuracy. The multitouch feature is implemented as well as it can be. Unfortunately, that doesn’t change my opinion that the feature adds little of value to notebook usage.

There are no doubt special work functions that can reap a big benefit from the addition of multitouch screens on the notebook. I can imagine those who work in 3D modeling could really use the ability to manipulate objects on the screen. Perhaps professional Photoshop jockeys can gain good mileage in much the same way. Those are just a couple of tasks that come to mind that could benefit from the special multitouch features. That’s assuming that applications exist that can take advantage of multitouch, and I don’t know if that’s the case. Not very many of us would routinely do that, anyway.

Regular users will find the Windows 7 touch features to be cool, at first. Executing things by gesture on the screen looks pretty special, and is something new and exciting. The excitement only lasts for a while, however; then the reality sets in that it’s not comfortable to keep reaching out to the screen and touching it. Notebook ergonomics didn’t evolve with direct screen manipulation in mind, and you soon start to feel that. You find that you quickly go back to using the touchpad and keyboard to do things like before. In other words — the novelty wears off pretty soon and it’s back to business as usual, with the touchscreen rarely touched.

I wanted to make sure that I wasn’t being unduly harsh on the technology, so I’ve had my wife using the T400s a fair bit. She’s a typical notebook user who does the things that most folks do on a laptop. She used it for hours and when I asked her about her experience she hesitated for a bit prior to answering. She went on to explain how the multitouch features were very cool at first, that she enjoyed the “novelty of the experience.” But it didn’t take long for her to realize that the ability didn’t add much value for her uses, and she noticed after a while that she rarely touched the screen again.

She did say that if the notebook was in fact a convertible tablet that her impression might have been more favorable. Rotating the screen around to slate form would make the notebook a more comfortable form for manipulating the screen directly. I agree with that assessment 100 percent. The standard notebook form factor just doesn’t fit well with touchscreen use.

I will be showing off the nice touch implementation that Lenovo has with the T400s soon. It must be seen on video to appreciate it fully, and that’s what I’ll do. Then you can judge for yourself if I’m being too harsh on the technology or not.

My email is pure Gmail, so the outage affected me like all the other Gmail users. My email went down, stayed down for a while, and then came back up just like yours. Did I panic? No, I knew it would come back, and pretty soon at that. Did the lack of email kill off my productivity? Nope. I just worked on other things.

Let’s face it, email is hosted on servers, whether Google’s or someone else’s. And servers go down from time to time. It’s a fact of life — nothing runs forever. Sure we can jump up and down and scream at Google, but why? I knew Gmail would come back and sure enough it did.

I heard all kinds of complaints when Gmail went down. People saying that email service X would never go down like that. Or others saying that Google OWED us to keep Gmail up and running. Give me a break, stuff happens. When I was in the corporate world it was oh, so common to hear employees at some large company or another wandering down the halls claiming that “email is down again.” And this the fancy corporate Exchange Server that only has to keep their own employees working. Stuff happens.

I had my own hosted Exchange Server for a long time and while it rarely went down, sometimes it did. The fact is that email servers are on the web and sometimes access to the server (or the web) is cut off. Stuff happens and we just have to get over it.

After much anticipation and waiting, Windows phones get a grand introduction on October 6th. These are the handsets that will feature Windows Mobile 6.5, which was officially introduced back in February. Yes, they’ll run WinMo 6.5, but Microsoft says that “most people who carry a Windows phone don’t realize it’s running Windows Mobile,” hence the new Windows Phone branding. The new devices will arrive on various carriers worldwide:

• In North America: Mobile operators AT&T, Bell Mobility, Sprint, TELUS and Verizon Wireless, and phone manufacturers HP, HTC Corp., LG Electronics, Samsung and Toshiba Corp.
• In Europe: Mobile operators Orange, Deutsche Telekom AG and Vodafone Group Plc, and phone manufacturers Acer, HTC, LG Electronics, Samsung, Sony Ericsson and Toshiba
• In Latin America: Mobile operator TIM Brazil, and phone manufacturers HTC, LG Electronics and Samsung
• In Asia Pacific: Mobile operators NTT DOCOMO Inc., SOFTBANK Mobile Corp., SK Telecom, Telstra and WILLCOM Inc., and phone manufacturers Acer Inc., HTC, LG Electronics, Samsung, Sony Ericsson and Toshiba

Aside from the new Windows Marketplace, which launches the same day, this effort looks more like a re-branding and less of a platform evolution to me. That’s not to say that Windows Mobile isn’t evolving or it has no place in today’s mobile world, because it is and it does. But based on relative market share and more modern platforms, it seems to have less of a place than ever before.

Microsoft Exchange support, always rock-solid with ActiveSync, was the biggest advantage Windows Mobile for me over other handsets. But now most of the major platforms license that technology or offer it through third-party solutions, so that advantage is lost. There are definitely other features that Windows Mobile provides that might be better, but I’m not sold that they’re key features that most people want or use on a daily basis. These days, it’s all about apps and the web.

While Windows Mobile offers a huge array of great applications, it’s lacking natively in the web. Yes, consumers can add a highly capable version of Opera or some other browser, but if they’re new to smartphones, they won’t likely know to do that. And if they already own a smartphone with a capable WebKit browser, do you think they’re going to move to Windows Mobile for a third-party browser? I suspect most of them won’t — regardless if the phone is called a Windows Mobile phone or just a Windows phone. It’s a shame that Microsoft let Research in Motion beat them to the punch by purchasing Torch Mobile and their WebKit browser technology for Windows Mobile. I’d probably feel differently about Windows Mobile 6.5 if that happened sooner and the new mobile OS used WebKit for Internet Explorer.

Yes, I’m now ducking from the onslaught of commentary from the WinMo faithful.

Aside from the operating system and handset makers getting in on the app store action, the carriers are doing it too. They’ve actually done this for a long time, but some — like Verizon Wireless — are renewing their efforts, based on what I read in Colin Gibbs’s 33-page GigaOm PRO briefing (subscription required) this week. In Colin’s survey of the mobile app landscape, the market looks more diluted than I originally realized. Colin offers a detailed overview of the competitive advantages and disadvantages each player faces, along with the challenges each individual app store is up against for consumer and brand awareness. I still say one platform should equal one app store tops, but then again, I like a neat and tidy space.

The AT&T and Apple relationship roots run very deep now — the two have dated on an exclusive basis since the initial iPhone announcement in January of 2007. If they keep this relationship up until 2014, some states would consider them in a common-law marriage! As long as AT&T carries Apple phones exclusively, I’m not sure they’ll offer an Android handset.

I actually wonder if Cupertino has enough influence to prevent that from happening, to be honest. Obviously, I don’t know. But if the mobile space becomes a two-horse race as some are thinking it will, I can’t see why Apple would let AT&T have an affair with Google. It would be good for AT&T — and its customers — to offer a choice of solid smartphone platforms. Apple might lose some of its favored status, though, and I’m not sure it would be too happy in that situation. If AT&T does offer a modern, new Android handset in the next year or two, I expect some heavy-duty relationship counseling sessions between the carrier and Apple.

With the current situation in the U.S., Google actually looks like the winner in all of this. The company already has two Android handsets available to T-Mobile customers. There are rumors that an upcoming Motorola Android handset is coming to Verizon Wireless in late October. And although Sprint is currently focused on the Palm Pre, that exclusive deal runs out around the end of the year. Dan Hesse of Sprint has alluded to waiting for Android to mature — which it has, thanks to the Cupcake update and more apps — so I’m expecting Android for Sprint customers, too. In the end, Google is well-positioned with the AT&T and Apple fling — it can play the field and gain more customers overall with a wider net. Thoughts?

Hands up — who wants a music subscription service on their Apple iPhone? OK, I just put both hands up and everyone in the Starbucks is wondering where the invisible mugger is behind me. The industry has long pondered Apple jumping into the music subscription market, but it hasn’t happened yet. So Rhapsody is attempting to make the leap, since Apple hasn’t.

The company just submitted an iPhone version of their music subscription service to Apple’s iTunes App Store and at first glance you might think it doesn’t stand a chance to get approved. But I see at least two reasons why it will get approved.

First of all, both Slacker and Pandora already have applications in the App Store. Like Rhapsody, these services offer streaming music direct to your handset. The main difference is that both Slacker and Pandora do so for free — Rhapsody offers their “to go” service for $14.95 a month. That might be considered an issue since Rhapsody would make money on the iPhone while Slacker and Pandora don’t. But that leads into the second reason why I think Rhapsody will find approval.

If you hear a song you like on Rhapsody and want to buy a licensed copy of it from your iPhone, Rhapsody offers a “Buy on iTunes” feature, which puts more cash in Apple’s coffers. I caught a quick glimpse of the link in this video demo of the Rhapsody iPhone application.

I didn’t see a purchase link to any other music store, so it looks like Rhapsody conceded their own MP3 music store to Apple’s in the software. Why do that? It offers the application a much better chance of getting approved and it opens up the tens of millions of iPhone owners to plunking down $14.99 a month for a Rhapsody music subscription. Sounds like a win-win to me.

It seems like everywhere I turn on the web I see the news that Microsoft is bringing Outlook to the Mac next year. The next version of Office for the Mac will dump the terrible Entourage and replace it with the real deal — Outlook. This is no doubt good news to some enterprise workers and to those who have been putting up with Entourage’s shortcomings, but I’m afraid it’s too late for me.

I was a die-hard Outlook user for more years than I can count. I was in Outlook all day, every day, and I used features that few ever touch. I was the very definition of an Outlook power user. Outlook was an ingrained part of both my life and my work. I paid for a hosted Exchange Server for years, primarily because of how well it worked with Outlook. Yes, I was an Outlook fanboy.

Then a couple of years ago I started using Macs in addition to Windows systems. I brought the Windows / Outlook mindset with me to the Mac and quickly grew frustrated. I bought Office for Mac and I toiled and toiled with Entourage to make it work as well as Outlook. No dice.

Entourage didn’t play consistently with the Exchange Server; it didn’t like the fact that I used more than one system; it just didn’t work very well for me. I duly updated and upgraded Entourage every time I had the chance, each time hoping that Microsoft would make it work like it should, like my precious Outlook. They produced both programs, right?

As time progressed my frustration grew to the point I couldn’t stand the thought of continuing with Entourage. I would actually approach the Mac with trepidation each morning, wondering what pain Entourage would inflict on me, yet again. I withstood this abuse for far too long before I stuck my head out the window and did my “I’m not gonna take this anymore!” routine.

Dumping Entourage was the smartest, no, the most brilliant thing I have ever done. My days became nice, even fun once again. I began to enjoy my work. I explored other alternatives for working with my email, and eventually I realized that a big, bloated local application, even Outlook, is just not efficient for me. I use multiple devices across platforms, and I realized that a cloud solution was more logical.

I implemented a Gmail method, dumped my Exchange Server, and never looked back. I can honestly say that I can’t remember the last time I had an email-related issue. There is nothing I used to do with a complicated Outlook implementation that I cannot do today, and all with a web browser.

The massive failure (IMO) of Entourage to deliver an effective desktop solution for me is directly responsible for my discovering that I am better off without such a method, and that includes Outlook too. So it’s great that Microsoft is bringing Outlook to the Mac desktop, just not to mine. Too little, too late.

While neither company representative was willing to discuss specific parameters of the alliance, they spent most of the event talking each other up. The theme of the announcement from both companies was that “choice” is good, and that’s why they are cooperating, even while competitors. The gist of the deal has the two companies working to leverage Microsoft technology on the Nokia product line.

Nokia would only firmly commit to two things — there will be a Symbian version of Office Mobile next year, and it will also be bringing Microsoft’s Office Communicator to their phones. This is also expected to happen next year. Office Mobile will be produced for inclusion on the Nokia Eseries phones at first, and other product lines as they see fit. When pressed about that statement Nokia would not commit to bringing Office to any other product for certain.

Nokia is already licensing Exchange and ActiveSync technology from Microsoft, and the alliance will see that expanded to add Sharepoint Server and the Microsoft System Center support on the back-end. System Center is an IT device management technology. Throughout the press event today it was clear that Office Mobile for Symbian is the cornerstone of the alliance. Microsoft kept emphasizing that, although Nokia did not.

Elop did say that Microsoft is still firmly committed to Windows Mobile, and that Nokia is just as committed to Symbian. The two companies will still compete while playing in the same sandbox. Nokia’s commitment to Symbian was also emphasized to Om Malik, so it’s clear Symbian is not going away.

During a brief Q&A session following the announcement, it was stated that Nokia has no plans to make a Windows Mobile phone. They didn’t say they wouldn’t produce one, just that they didn’t plan on it “at this time.” Microsoft repeated that the alliance was focused on Symbian, although Nokia held back from firmly stating that.

When asked what mobile operators will get out of the alliance, Microsoft stated that Nokia’s extensive customer survey information would benefit operators to help them make better offerings to their customers. That sounds like Nokia may be required to provide carriers with customer information as part of the deal.

The alliance is basically as expected — Microsoft will produce software for Nokia. Throughout the event Nokia kept calling the development a collaboration, but I don’t recall Microsoft saying that. Nokia wins Office Mobile and Communicator out of the deal, although I’m not sure what they gain from that. Office support is already provided by third party solutions for Symbian, and some would claim these are superior to the existing Windows Mobile version of Office Mobile. I tried to find out if the Symbian version of Office Mobile would be a port from the Windows Mobile version, but my question was not answered. As for Office Communicator, I personally have never seen any company use it other than Microsoft. Maybe Nokia is planning to sell phones to Microsoft employees.

The big loser of the deal in my view  is the Windows Mobile team at Microsoft. Yesterday they could claim the only version of Microsoft Office for a smartphone; today they can’t. Their loss was driven home after a brief audio outage at the press event today. When audio was restored Elop joked that they should obviously have used Nokia handsets to handle the press call. Ouch.

Steve examines this situation over at UMPC Portal and spotlights the fact that MIDs are a niche product. As such, retailers aren’t buying stock to sell. He’s right on that part, but he didn’t quite get into why that is.

Granted, he rightly says:

“[U]ntil better products reach the market with better operating systems and some marketing support from Intel, I don’t think anyone is going to be throwing thousands of dollars at marketing themselves and buying large amounts of stock.”

But that’s not the whole problem, so I’ll point out the elephant in the room: smartphones of today — and tomorrow — are minimizing the demand for a handheld device with a desktop operating system. Yes, there will always be some people who want a fully-featured, pocketable computer. I’m not suggesting that there’s anything wrong with wanting that.

I am suggesting that the vast number of consumers don’t want nor need that. They’re just now starting to jump onto the smartphone platform at a time where they can do nearly everything they need to on the go. Remember, I’m not talking about consumers that make a living by creating web content or managing IT systems — I’m talking about folks that need to check email, search the web, update social networks and enjoy some light media content. The fact that today’s smartphones can handle all of that and, depending on the platform, have tens of thousands of applications for specialized purposes is helping to keep MIDs out of the mainstream.

Another related issue is that it’s hard for developers to focus on a niche product like MIDs when tens of millions of smartphones are sold every year. What’s the incentive for a developer to throw resources at a device that might only sell 10,000 units, for example? Wouldn’t those resources be better used on developing for a major platform?

It’s also not helping MIDs that netbooks have come from nowhere in 2007. If a small, cheap laptop with a usable keyboard hadn’t arrived on the scene, MIDs might have had a better chance at going mainstream. They would fit the need in between a limited-use smartphone and a full-featured notebook. But netbooks are clearly filling that need nicely, and doing so at a relatively low price.

I’m not predicting the death of the MID here — I’m pointing out why there isn’t much life in the MID market. Again, there are plenty of people that want or even need a pocketable PC. But some would argue that today’s smartphones go a long way towards meeting that need. And as Flash, HTML5 and other maturing technologies come to the smartphone platform, they’ll go even farther towards meeting the need once envisioned for Mobile Internet Devices.

Don’t get me wrong, cool gadgets go a long way to excite consumers. The Kindle capitalized on that by pairing e-Ink display technology with wireless capability. Folks got excited about the Kindle as it attempted to recreate the experience of reading traditional dead-tree books. Whether it succeeded with that effort or not depends on who you ask, but it did a good enough job to get people to buy them. Adding the wireless capability was a stroke of brilliance by Amazon, as they recognized the online e-book buying experience had to be even easier than the traditional bookstore trip. They succeeded on that score, although they tried to shoot themselves down stupidly, but that easy buying experience was only part of the reason for that success. They made sure they had lots and lots of e-book content for sale at launch.

I’m not just talking about public domain books, such as the hundreds of thousands scanned by Google. While Sony makes a big deal about having hundreds of thousands of these books available for the Sony Reader line, consumers want bestsellers. Let’s face it, new bestsellers have been driving traditional book sales for as long as there have been books, and those are the books that e-book customers want. Amazon understood this with the Kindle, and Barnes & Noble understands that just as much. That’s why it bought Fictionwise; it got an instant inventory of popular titles to sell.

Several different e-book readers have been announced, many of them touting wireless capability to compete with the Kindle. Plastic Logic has an interesting reader coming soon, and it has partnered with Barnes & Noble to provide the content at launch. That’s a smart move; content is king in the e-book world. Surprisingly, other readers are still being announced without wireless capability. This is sure to limit their success in the market. Consumers don’t just want a vehicle for reading books, they want the whole system to get them too.

It’s not just the e-book reading device that determines success in this space. It is the content that consumers can tap into with them. That content must be available from day one or disappointment will set in immediately after the purchase of the reader. It’s like buying a big screen TV only to discover that no channels are available in your home. Looks pretty, but…

NOTE: Those who want an in-depth overview of the e-book scene should check out this research briefing on Gigaom Pro (subscription required.) It is an outstanding look at the players in the e-book industry and how they all compare.

Notebooks/ Netbooks

What We predicted:

By far the biggest story in notebooks will continue to be the lowly netbook.  We will see models refreshed and new models continue to be released by those new to the scene.  Prices will remain about where they are at the end of 2008 as they don’t have very far to fall while keeping the basic features intact. These basic features will not change much due to the thin price range.  We’ll continue to see Atoms everywhere, 1 GB of RAM, SSDs and HDDs like we see now.  Touchscreens will start to be offered but it won’t take long for consumers to figure out they offer little except higher cost.

Windows 7 will appear in the second half of 2009 and Microsoft will make a big push to get XP off of netbooks.  They will have to make huge concessions for a new OS as far as pricing to do so however.  Netbooks that cost $300 – 400 will not support an OS with a licensing fee of over $25.  The term “netbook” will continue to flourish despite Psion’s best efforts.

Major OEMs will continue to push thin and light notebooks on both the enterprise and increasingly on consumers.  The race will stay on to add the most features while keeping the price around $1,000 for these consumer laptops.  Integrated 3G will continue to be a feature on notebooks but consumers will remain reluctant to pony up $60 per month for the data plans.  Unfortunately we will not see any new developments in battery tech so things will be stagnant in this area.

Apple will finally refresh the 17-inch MacBook Pro by introducing a powerful unibody Pro with the big screen and a quad-core processor.  This will be aimed at the professional graphics worker and will cost in the rich neighborhood of $3,000.  There will not be an Apple netbook as such a low priced device is not in Apple’s scheme of things.  They will introduce an “iPod Maxi” that is an iPod Touch with a 5 – 7-inch screen.  They will claim this is their netbook, although lacking a keyboard.

How We Fared:

Netbooks are no question the dominating product category in the notebook area. This year has seen the continuation of many netbook models released to the market, with much the same specs as we predicted. The HP Mini 5101 and Toshiba NB205 that Kevin and I are currently playing with are nice netbooks, but largely the same as earlier models.

Our prediction that we would start seeing netbooks with touchscreens is almost true, as the ASUS T91 will be released in a few weeks. Early reviews of the T91 back up what we predicted, that such netbooks offer less to consumers than desired.

Our thoughts on thin and light notebooks were spot on, with every major OEM releasing them this year. Even the venerable ThinkPad line has seen thin models hit the shelves.

Apple did indeed refresh the expensive MacBook Pro, 17-inch version. The unibody MBP has the special integrated long-life battery to appeal to mobile workers. The rumors of an Apple slate device back up our prediction, although our expectation of a 5 – 7-inch screen may be smaller than the 10-inch size that is heavily expected.

Notebooks/ Netbooks Prediction Grade: A

Smartphones

What We Predicted:

The line between smartphones and feature phones will continue to blur in 2009 with consumers not caring what their phone is called.  We will continue to see feature-rich phones with big touchscreens and web browsing pushed by the carriers.  This will have a desirable affect for smartphone users as the carriers will have to reduce their monthly rate for data plans.  Consumers just “buying a phone” will not pay the high fees for data plans that are being charged now.  We will see 3G stop being a selling point and become an expected commodity in 2009.  The proliferation of web phones will begin saturating the carrier’s networks and may affect enterprise service.

Microsoft will likely introduce the next interim version of Windows Mobile to compete more directly with the iPhone.  This will not be the next major version of WM which likely won’t appear until 2010.  This interim version of Windows Mobile must incorporate touch throughout the core of the OS if new WM devices are to remain competitive.  HTC will continue to be the biggest WM handset producer in 2009.

Apple may introduce a refresh of the iPhone 3G but it will be minor if so.  We might see an updated processor and video capabilities but that’s about it.

Android will really begin picking up steam in 2009 and we expect to see as many as 12 handsets appear from different OEMs bearing the Android OS.  The OS will continue to improve and get really robust as the commercial app store is open early in the year.  Android will become a force to be reckoned with in 2009 and begin stealing market share from Windows Mobile.  We’ll see version 2 of Android in 2009 that will rapidly bring it into the competitive world.  Expect Exchange support in Android 2.

Nokia and other OEMs will continue to lose market share to Apple and RIM.  Blackberries will continue to invade the consumer space making RIM even bigger than before.  They will produce several new handsets that will firmly straddle the enterprise/ consumer space, thus cementing their future in the smartphone domain.

How We Fared:

Smartphones have indeed become the standard as far as phones are concerned. Every OEM is producing them it seems and sales numbers show that consumers are flocking to the smarter phones. Web connectivity is pretty much expected on phones and 3G has increasingly become the norm as a result.

Microsoft is expected to release Windows Mobile 6.5 this year. WM 6.5 is the interim version intended to tide everyone over until the Next Big Thing in WinMo, 7.0, is released in 2010. HTC is still a dominant producer of WM phones, although they have shocked folks with the recent news they will produce more Android phones next year than the WinMo variety.

Our expectations of the Android platform have been met, with the next generation phones hitting consumer hands. Android is definitely gathering steam in the smartphone area and will become a steamroller as more phones get released.

Apple and RIM have seen high sales numbers this year, and Nokia continues to drop like a rock. The dark horse this year, that we didn’t predict, is the Palm Pre. The Pre went from an announcement early this year to a released product, and has become a factor on the smartphone stage. In our defense, Palm has surprised pretty much everybody this year with the Pre.

Smartphones Prediction Grade: B+ (for missing the Pre)

4G

What We Predicted:

WiMAX will continue to roll out but not many will care.  The major players will continue to be burned by the “chicken and egg” situation that has consumers waiting to enroll until the coverage is as big as 3G.  LTE will make strides in 2009 on its way to be the NBT in 4G and this will be a nail in the WiMAX coffin.

How We Fared:

Sprint and Clearwire have been racing to get WiMAX 4G service rolled out in as many cities in the U. S. as they can. They have surprised us with the speed they are moving, but customers are reporting that coverage in those cities is spotty. Verizon had recently indicated they are moving up the rollout schedule for LTE, and time will tell if we are correct that it will kill off WiMAX.

4G Prediction Grade: B (for coming down too hard on WiMAX)

Tablet PCs

What We Predicted:

We add this category reluctantly because it is clear that it is dead as a product line.  The current players producing devices will continue to refresh them but little innovation will appear in this space in 2009.  Touch will continue to be the rage in this area, continuing to push the ink well off the screen.  This is expected with the technology incorporated into Vista and touch being a mantra with Windows 7.  Ink will become an even smaller niche market in 2009 than it was in 2008.

How We Fared:

Sadly, we have been spot on with our call that the Tablet PC product line is dead. There has been zero innovation in this area this year, and Tablet PCs as touted by Microsoft are a non-item. Our prediction that touch will enter this area is also correct, with slates expected from a number of vendors this year. These touch tablets, chief among them the expected Apple slate, further confuse the consumer as to what a Tablet PC really is. Ink on the tablet is likely dead.

Tablet PC Prediction Grade: A+

Summary

So far this year has unfolded to show that our predictions were pretty good overall. The dominant products in the mobile tech area are definitely netbooks and smartphones, with the upcoming web tablets ready to enter the stage.